The Forum was moderated by John Geraghty, National Practice Leader of Energy & Infrastructure at Marshall & Stevens. Panelists included Bobby Majumder, Partner and Co-Chair of the Energy Industry Team at FBT Gibbons; Ken Malik, Head of Project Development at Grupo Cobra; Brent Nelson, Senior Managing Director of Markets and Strategy at Ascend Analytics; and Fahad Siddiqui, Director of Structured Finance at TotalEnergies.
At the Forum, the investment dynamics of the current energy landscape came into sharp focus: who’s buying, who’s selling, what pencils, and what doesn’t?
For infrastructure investors and PE funds with energy exposure, a consistent theme across the panel was that the market is becoming more selective and increasingly focused on project fundamentals and long-term capital positioning.
Sell pressure on renewables is real and concentrated
Bobby Majumder was direct about what he’s seeing in deal flow:
“With respect to renewables, we’re definitely seeing sell pressures, because the deals aren’t economical without the tax incentives.”
The discussion suggested that much of the capital flowing toward fossil-fuel assets today is centered more on consolidation and operational efficiency than large-scale new generation development. Much of the fossil-fuel M&A activity today is consolidation-driven, focused on extracting synergies, stripping out G&A, and operating existing portfolios more efficiently.
The discussion also reflected skepticism around how quickly nuclear solutions can be deployed at scale. For investors holding renewable assets that were underwritten on incentive assumptions that no longer hold, the range of attractive exit opportunities may be narrowing.
This is a patient capital market
Fahad Siddiqui framed the current moment:
“It’s patient capital. It’s who can be patient here. And this will thin out the herd.”
Brent Nelson of Ascend Analytics noted that Ascend had been forecasting this dynamic for two years:
“We said this is going to be a good time for patient capital, and it’s going to be a really tough time for people who need to recycle capital.”
The implication for infrastructure investors is structural. Firms with long hold periods, diversified operating assets, and the ability to weather regulatory uncertainty hold a distinct edge over those with shorter fund cycles or liquidity pressure.
Capital will increase, not just reallocate
When the panel was asked directly whether AI-driven demand will cause a reallocation of existing energy investment capital or an increase in total capital committed to the sector, all four panelists said: increase.
“We haven’t had to build new stuff at this scale in a while,” Brent Nelson observed. Ken Malik added nuance: it will be both reallocation and expansion, with an edge toward expansion. The constraint is underwriting certainty in a policy environment still writing its own rules.
For investors already positioned in energy infrastructure, this is the medium-term tailwind. The question is which assets benefit from that inflow.
The deals being done are on supply-and-demand fundamentals
The underlying demand is real. Fahad Siddiqui noted:
“We know that the demand is going to get there. We know it’s going to take a mix of all generating assets.”
The projects attracting the strongest interest are increasingly the ones that can stand on their own economics even under a less certain incentive environment.
“Solar is doing well at the moment still because there is so much demand powered by data centers and AI.” – Ken Malik
For investors, the filter has become straightforward. Does this project stand on economics? If the thesis is incentive-dependent, it carries a fundamentally different risk profile than it did three years ago. The discussion suggested that investors are increasingly differentiating between those risk profiles.
For investors with long time horizons and the ability to remain patient through market uncertainty, the discussion suggested that 2026 is becoming an increasingly selective market.
The full conversation on what it takes to develop and finance projects in 2026 is available on demand. Watch the recording or download the 2026 Energy Outlook Report for our complete analysis.
